Five most frightening findings of National Climate Assessment Federal Report

Center for Biological Diversity: Climate change is already affecting the United States and will threaten our future by endangering the food supply, increasing the risk of flooding and powerful hurricanes, and warming the country by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 unless we make deep cuts in carbon pollution, according to a new federal report.

The draft National Climate Assessment, released for public comment this week, explains that climate change is already delivering hotter summers, more flooding and periods of extreme heat that “last longer than any living American has ever experienced.” But the report also offers five particularly disturbing predictions about climate change, according to scientists with the Center for Biological Diversity. The Center was the lead plaintiff in a lawsuit that forced the federal government to release the second national climate assessment in 2008.

“This report gives Americans a disturbing preview of a harsh future ruled by climate chaos,” said Shaye Wolf, the Center's climate science director. “Our country will suffer searing heat, surging seas and terrifying storms unless we act immediately against greenhouse gas pollution. Fighting climate change should be the first thing on President Obama’s mind in the morning and his last thought before bed.”

Here are the five most disturbing findings of the draft National Climate Assessment:

• More extreme heat: America will warm by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 if carbon emissions keep rising, the report says. Greenhouse gas pollution has already roughly doubled the risk of extreme heat events (such as the scorching summer of 2011 in Texas), and major heat waves will become more intense and more common. ...
• Rising seas and more damaging extreme weather: The power of the strongest hurricanes will continue to rise, the report says, and most areas of the United States will see more frequent and more intense downpours, which can lead to harmful flooding. ...
• Endangered food supply: Food insecurity will increase in America and around the world. ...
• Biodiversity threatened: Many plants and animals and their habitats may be overwhelmed by climate change and other stressors....
• Carbon emissions rising rapidly: Carbon pollution is still increasing, with global emissions “on track to be even higher than the high emissions scenario” analyzed in the report. America’s contribution to global emissions is about 20 percent, the report notes, and our efforts to reduce pollution are too slight to comply with international agreements to avoid dangerous climate change....

Delayed action raises costs of climate change, study says

EurActiv: An agreement by almost 200 nations to curb rising greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 will be far more costly than taking action now to tackle climate change, a new report says. Quick measures to cut emissions would give a far better chance of keeping global warming within an agreed UN limit of 2o Celsius above pre-industrial times to avert more floods, heatwaves, droughts and rising sea levels.

"If you delay action by 10, 20 years you significantly reduce the chances of meeting the 2o target," said Keywan Riahi, one of the authors of the report at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.

"It was generally known that costs increase when you delay action. It was not clear how quickly they change," he told Reuters on Wednesday (2 January) of the findings in the science journal Nature Climate Change based on 500 computer-generated scenarios.

It said the timing of cuts in greenhouse gases was more important than other uncertainties - about things like how the climate system works, future energy demand, carbon prices or new energy technologies. The study indicated that an immediate global price of €15 a tonne on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas, would give a roughly 60% chance of limiting warming to below 2o.

Wait until 2020 and the carbon price would have to be around €75 a tonne to retain that 60% chance, Riahi told Reuters of the study made with other experts in Switzerland, New Zealand, Australia and Germany. And a delay of action until 2030 might put the 2o limit - which some of the more pessimistic scientists say is already unattainable - completely out of reach, whatever the carbon price....

At Disneyland, the hat worn by Mickey Mouse in "The Sorcerer's Apprentice," shot by Fabi1994 at de.wikipedia, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Climate migitation costs risk spiralling 'out of control'

Maxine Perella in edie.net: The global cost of meeting climate change targets is set to soar unless urgent action is taken, new research has warned.  According to an in-depth study from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), climate target levels will become much more difficult to achieve, and more expensive, if the problem isn't tackled soon.

It points to a lack of political will among world leaders as the biggest barrier in achieving this, with many countries reluctant to take serious steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement policies that could help mitigate climate change.

Social uncertainties, which relate to public awareness and can influence consumer energy demand, were also considered a significant obstacle.  Both of these were ranked of higher concern than geophysical and technological uncertainties around climate change, such as the future availability of energy supply and carbon capture systems.

This is because after a certain point, there is little chance of limiting temperature rise to below 2°C. According to IIASA energy programme leader and study co-author Keywan Riahi, the longer nations hold off from taking action, the riskier the situation will become.

"With a 20-year delay, you can throw as much money as you have at the problem, and the best outcome you can get is a 50-50 chance of keeping temperature rise below two degrees," he said....

A bridge out in Watervliet, Michigan, shot by Stephanie, Wikimedia Commons,  under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Supporting climate-friendly food production

Seed Daily via SPX: This summer, record temperatures and limited rainfall parched vast areas of U.S. cropland, and with Earth's surface air temperature projected to rise 0.69 degrees Celsius by 2030, global food production will be even more unpredictable, according to new research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute.

Although agriculture is a major driver of human-caused climate change, contributing an estimated 25 to 30 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, when done sustainably it can be an important key to mitigating climate change, write report authors Danielle Nierenberg and Laura Reynolds.

Because of its reliance on healthy soil, adequate water, and a delicate balance of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere, farming is the human endeavor most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

But agriculture's strong interrelationships with both climatic and environmental variables also make it a significant player in reducing climate-altering emissions as well as helping the world adapt to the realities of a warming planet.

"The good news is that agriculture can hold an important key to mitigating climate change," said Reynolds, Worldwatch's Food and Agriculture Research Associate.

"Practices such as using animal manure rather than artificial fertilizer, planting trees on farms to reduce soil erosion and sequester carbon, and growing food in cities all hold huge potential for reducing agriculture's environmental footprint."...

More potent than carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide levels in California may be nearly three times higher than previously thought

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory News Center: Using a new method for estimating greenhouse gases that combines atmospheric measurements with model predictions, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) researchers have found that the level of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, in California may be 2.5 to 3 times greater than the current inventory.

At that level, total N2O emissions—which are believed to come primarily from nitrogen fertilizers used in agricultural production—would account for about 8 percent of California’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The findings were recently published in a paper titled “Seasonal variations in N2O emissions from central California” in Geophysical Research Letters. Earlier this year, using the same methodology, the researchers found that levels of methane, another potent greenhouse gas, in California may be up to 1.8 times greater than previous estimates.

“If our results are accurate, then it suggests that N2O makes up not 3 percent of California’s total effective greenhouse gases but closer to 10 percent,” said Marc Fischer, lead researcher on both studies. “And taken together with our previous estimates of methane emissions, that suggests those two gases may make up 20 to 25 percent of California’s total emissions. That’s starting to become roughly comparable to emissions from fossil fuel CO2.”

Accurate estimates of the California’s greenhouse gas emissions are important as the state works to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, as mandated by a law known as AB 32. The vast majority of the reduction efforts have been focused on CO2….

This map shows the amount of nitrous oxide emissions in California (in nanomoles per square meter per second). The "x" represents the location of the measurement tower in Walnut Grove, CA. From the LBNL website

  

Rich nations alone can't halt global warming

Space Daily via AFP: Poor nations must make haste to curb greenhouse gas emissions as even an impossible zero-percent pollution target for the developed world by 2030 won't stop calamitous climate change, a report warned Tuesday.

Co-authored by former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, the document said that while rich countries are responsible for the bulk of Earth-warming gas emissions since the industrial age, the world could not afford to play the blame-game.

All countries, rich and poor, were moving "recklessly slow" on reducing emissions, said the report issued on the sidelines of UN climate talks in Doha, Qatar.

"There is a deep inequity in that rich countries grew wealthy on high-carbon growth, and poor countries will be hit particularly hard by climate change," it said.

"Recognition of that inequity must play a strong part in building international collaboration, but must not be allowed to block progress: that would be the most inequitable of all outcomes"....

Nicholas Stern in 2000

Pledges to fight global warming inadequate, US off track

Reuters: Major nations' policies are inadequate to limit global warming and the United States is off track even in carrying out its weak pledge to limit greenhouse gas emissions, a scientific scorecard showed on Friday.

The Climate Action Tracker report, issued on the sidelines of talks among almost 200 countries in Doha about climate change, said a toughening of policies was still possible to avert damaging floods, heat waves and rising seas.

Major emitters China, the United States, the European Union and Russia all got "inadequate" ratings for their plans to help limit global warming to an agreed U.N. ceiling of below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6F) above pre-industrial times, it said.

Adding up all national pledges and taking account of rising emissions, the world was headed for a warming of about 3.3 degrees Celsius (6F), it said.

"We are off track and the United States is not likely to meet its pledge," said Niklas Hoehne of research group Ecofys, which compiles the tracker with Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research....

Flag shot by Jnn13, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Thawing of permafrost expected to cause significant additional global warming, not yet accounted for in climate predictions

UN Environment Programme News Centre:  Permafrost covering almost a quarter of the northern hemisphere contains 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon, twice that currently in the atmosphere, and could significantly amplify global warming should thawing accelerate as expected, according to a new report released today by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). Warming permafrost can also radically change ecosystems and cause costly infrastructural damage due to increasingly unstable ground, the report says.

"Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost" seeks to highlight the potential hazards of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from warming permafrost, which have not thus far been included in climate-prediction modelling. The science on the potential impacts of warming permafrost has only begun to enter the mainstream in the last few years, and as a truly "emerging issue" could not have been included in climate change modelling to date. The report recommends a special IPCC assessment on permafrost and the creation of national monitoring networks and adaptation plans as key steps to deal with potential impacts of this significant source of emissions, which may become a major factor in global warming.

"Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet's future because it contains large stores of frozen organic matter that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current global warming and propel us to a warmer world," said UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner.

"Its potential impact on the climate, ecosystems and infrastructure has been neglected for too long," he added. "This report seeks to communicate to climate-treaty negotiators, policy makers and the general public the implications of continuing to ignore the challenges of warming permafrost."

...Should the active layer increase in thickness due to warming, huge quantities of organic matter stored in the frozen soil would begin to thaw and decay, releasing large amounts of CO₂  and methane into the atmosphere....

A scientist standing in front of an ice-rich permafrost exposure on the coast of Herschel Island, Yukon Territory (photo: Michael Fritz, from the UNEP website).

Greenhouse gas emissions from drained wetlands equal to industrial sources

Red Orbit: Greenhouse gas emissions originating from drained wetlands are roughly equal to that given off by industrial factories, a team of Swedish researchers claim in a new study. Experts from the University of Gothenburg and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) were commissioned by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency to analyze and compile a report about the amount of greenhouse gases given off by forests and agricultural fields on areas that once had been wetlands.

They discovered those forests and fields, which comprise as much as 10-percent of the country’s total surface area, become a “significant source of greenhouse emissions” once the wetlands have been drained, the university said in a statement released Friday.

“We note that drained wetlands which have been forested or used for agricultural purposes are a significant potential source of greenhouse gases of a magnitude that is at least comparable with the industrial sector’s greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden,” they said.

...“As long as wetlands remain wet, only methane is given off,” Dr. Kasimir Klemedtsson of the University of Gothenburg’s Department of Earth Sciences, said. “However, for more than a hundred years land has been drained for agriculture and forestry, producing large quantities both carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide.”...

A wetlands in Dalarna, Sweden, shot by Stefan Grünig, Privatarchiv, Wikiimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Climate change evident across Europe, confirming urgent need for adaptation

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research: Climate change is affecting all regions in Europe, causing a wide range of impacts on society and the environment. Further impacts are expected in the future, potentially causing high damage costs, according to the latest assessment published by the European Environment Agency today.

The report, ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012’ finds that higher average temperatures have been observed across Europe as well as decreasing precipitation in southern regions and increasing precipitation in northern Europe.

The report, ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012’ finds that higher average temperatures have been observed across Europe as well as decreasing precipitation in southern regions and increasing precipitation in northern Europe. The Greenland ice sheet, Arctic sea ice and many glaciers across Europe are melting, snow cover has decreased and most permafrost soils have warmed.

Extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods and droughts have caused rising damage costs across Europe in recent years. While more evidence is needed to discern the part played by climate change in this trend, growing human activity in hazard-prone areas has been a key factor. Future climate change is expected to add to this vulnerability, as extreme weather events are expected to become more intense and frequent. If European societies do not adapt, damage costs are expected to continue to rise, according to the report.

Some regions will be less able to adapt to climate change than others, in part due to economic disparities across Europe, the report says. The effects of climate change could deepen these inequalities. Jacqueline McGlade, EEA Executive Director said: “Climate change is a reality around the world, and the extent and speed of change is becoming ever more evident. This means that every part of the economy, including households, needs to adapt as well as reduce emissions.”...

Broecker talks future of climate change research

Shayna Owens in the Columbia Spectator: Thirty-seven years after Wallace Broecker, CC ’53, coined the terms “climate change” and “global warming” in his research, he still thinks that his predictions were “smack on.”

At a discussion on Tuesday sponsored by the Institute for Religion, Culture, and Public Life, Broecker and New York Times reporter John M. Broder, who covers energy and the environment, considered future solutions to global warming and how scientists can best implement them. Broder said that—especially in light of Hurricane Sandy, which ripped through New York City two weeks ago, causing mass flooding and power outages across the five boroughs—the topic of climate change needs to be addressed.

....“We’re spending incredibly large amounts of money on our military,” he said. “Why? That’s a small problem compared to CO2, but we’re spending nothing on CO2.”

Broder said that in Washington, there is an “issue of messaging,” noting that government officials may not be implementing the best strategies to stress the importance of addressing climate change. “Al Gore is probably the best example of this planetary emergency,” Broder said. “These are fear-based messages, and I don’t think they work very well.”

...Broecker, who called himself a “very optimistic person,” said he still harbors doubts about whether enough action will be taken. Somehow we have to get together and say, let’s not fight, let’s come up with some plan and get going,” he said....

Caspar David Friedrich's "Wanderer above the Sea of Fog," from 1818

Carbon buried in the soil rises again

University of California-Davis News: A research team that includes a University of California, Davis, plant scientist has identified a source of carbon emissions that could play a role in understanding past and future global change. While earlier studies have found that erosion can bury carbon in the soil, acting as a carbon sink, or storage, the new study published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that part of that sink is only temporary.

“It’s all part of figuring out the global carbon cycle,” said co-author Johan Six, professor of plant sciences at UC Davis. “Where are the sources, and where are the sinks? Erosion is in some ways a sink, but, as we found out, it can also become a source.” The researchers estimated that roughly half of the carbon buried in soil by erosion will be re-released into the atmosphere within about 500 years, and possibly faster due to climate change. Climate change can speed the rate of decomposition, aiding the release of the buried carbon.

As a case study, the researchers used radiocarbon and optical dating to calculate the amount of carbon emissions captured in soils and released to the atmosphere during the past 6,000 years along the Dijle River in Belgium.

The study’s long time scope — from 4000 B.C. to A.D. 2000 — allowed the researchers to notice the gradual reintroduction of buried carbon to the atmosphere. Significant agricultural land conversion — historically the largest source of global erosion — began primarily in the past 150 years, well under the researchers’ time frame of 500 years. Therefore, most carbon sequestered in the soil during the past 150 years of agricultural history has not been released yet but may become a significant carbon source in the future, with implications for soil management, the study said.

“Our results showed that half of the carbon initially present in the soil and vegetation was lost to the atmosphere as a result of agricultural conversion,” said study co-author Gert Verstraeten, a professor at KU Leaven, Belgium. Six noted that erosion could be minimized by no-till and low-till agricultural methods, as well as by cover cropping, which can ensure that soil is not left bare.... 

Long furrows, shot by Duncan Grey, Wikimedia Commons via Geograph UK, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license