How Australians survive the raging bushfires

Barry Parker in AFP: Dozens of out-of-control fires have burnt vast tracts of Australia, destroying homes and crops and killing animals, but not a single person has died.

The success of the operation to safeguard lives has much to do with a detailed guide to surviving bush blazes, along with an official danger rating system that was introduced after 173 people perished in the 2009 Black Saturday firestorm.

In addition the Rural Fire Service (RFS) is extremely proactive in promoting safety precautions and warns every family how to make their own survival plans. RFS Deputy commissioner for New South Wales Rob Rogers spent Friday morning on radio and television bracing the nation for more to come as firefighters faced soaring temperatures in the battle to douse more than 100 fires.

"We've obviously got severe fire danger," Rogers said running through the basic requirements of survival designed to "protect the lives of your family".

"Prepare, act, survive," say the guidelines, continuing: "The majority of deaths during bushfires result from people trying to leave their homes at the last moment." The danger ratings system culminates in severe, extreme and catastrophic conditions, which are used to determine whether to evacuate or to stay and fight....

Fire danger sign, showing "Very High" risk, Red Cliffs, Victoria, Australia, 2008.  Shot by Longhair, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license

Delayed action raises costs of climate change, study says

EurActiv: An agreement by almost 200 nations to curb rising greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 will be far more costly than taking action now to tackle climate change, a new report says. Quick measures to cut emissions would give a far better chance of keeping global warming within an agreed UN limit of 2o Celsius above pre-industrial times to avert more floods, heatwaves, droughts and rising sea levels.

"If you delay action by 10, 20 years you significantly reduce the chances of meeting the 2o target," said Keywan Riahi, one of the authors of the report at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.

"It was generally known that costs increase when you delay action. It was not clear how quickly they change," he told Reuters on Wednesday (2 January) of the findings in the science journal Nature Climate Change based on 500 computer-generated scenarios.

It said the timing of cuts in greenhouse gases was more important than other uncertainties - about things like how the climate system works, future energy demand, carbon prices or new energy technologies. The study indicated that an immediate global price of €15 a tonne on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas, would give a roughly 60% chance of limiting warming to below 2o.

Wait until 2020 and the carbon price would have to be around €75 a tonne to retain that 60% chance, Riahi told Reuters of the study made with other experts in Switzerland, New Zealand, Australia and Germany. And a delay of action until 2030 might put the 2o limit - which some of the more pessimistic scientists say is already unattainable - completely out of reach, whatever the carbon price....

At Disneyland, the hat worn by Mickey Mouse in "The Sorcerer's Apprentice," shot by Fabi1994 at de.wikipedia, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Filipinos urged to heed weather advisories, geohazard maps

Philippine Information Agency: The Eastern Visayas Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council called on local government units and the public to heed weather advisories and to take geohazard maps seriously.  Office of Civil Defense Director Rey Gozon made the call as Pagasa has spotted and is currently monitoring a Low Pressure Area off Eastern Mindanao.

The LPA is expected to bring moderate to heavy rains (5.0 - 15.0 mm/hr) and thunderstorms in Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao, particularly over the provinces of Samar, Leyte, Agusan and Surigao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the seaboards of Luzon and the Eastern seaboard of Visayas and Mindanao.

Gozon said that the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, particularly its Mines and Geosciences Bureau has distributed geohazard maps which identified disaster prone areas to all LGUs, so they will be properly guided in taking the necessary steps before, during and after a calamity.  “The geohazard maps are critical planning tools in the local government’s risk reduction program,” Gozon emphasized.

Geohazard maps contain information as to the level of susceptibility of areas to flooding and landslide, including areas that could possibly be used as relocation or evacuation sites, in case of calamities....

A seismograph at Pinatubo

Philippines early warning system saves lives as thousands flee Typhoon Bopha

UNISDR News Archive: The UN Office for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) today praised the improved performance of early warning systems in the Philippines as Typhoon Bopha cut a swathe of destruction across the country resulting in over 200 deaths and significant economic losses.

UNISDR Head of Regional Office for Asia, Jerry Velasquez, said: "This time last year over 1,400 people died on Mindanao in a similar event but this time big improvements in the early warning systems have saved many lives. More than 167,000 people have been evacuated to shelters."

He singled out the new automated rainfall and flood prediction systems as being critical to the provision of accurate forecasts and timely warnings as part of Project NOAH (Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards), introduced earlier this year by the Department of Science and Technology at the request of President Benigno S. Aquino.

"The Government's NOAH Project has enabled central government agencies, local governments and citizens to prepare and act before intense weather arrives. The project includes dissemination through television and the Internet of real-time satellite, Doppler radar, and other weather information enabling people to see not only wind speed and location of incoming weather disturbance but also the possible amount of precipitation.

…"Once Project NOAH is completely deployed across the country by the end of 2013, and local governments start acting based on its information, we should start to see a significant drop in the numbers of lives lost to disasters in the Philippines. However, the country also needs to respond to the enormous economic losses which these entail. About 0.8% of GDP is lost each year to disasters and this takes an unacceptably high toll on the country's development and efforts at poverty reduction."...

Typhoon Bopha on December 1, a category 4 storm (shot by NASA)

Flood warnings issued in northern England and Wales

Martin Wainwright in the Guardian (UK): Northern England and Wales is expected to get a soaking on Monday as the latest round of torrential rainfall moves up across the country. Downpours of up to 40-50mm could fall in the next 24 hours as the rain reaches Lancashire and Cumbria initially and then crosses the Pennines, gaining in intensity.

Severe weather warnings have been issued for Yorkshire and north-east England at the lowest 'be aware' level, with a pocket of the more serious 'be alert' status in north and east Yorkshire during the afternoon.

The Environment Agency has 16 flood warnings and 39 flood alerts in north-east England and Yorkshire and one warning and 14 alerts in the north west, with 21 areas in the north-east and three in the north-west back to normal after previous warnings....

Climate change report warns of dramatically warmer world this century

The World Bank: Like summer’s satellite image of the melting Greenland ice sheet, a new report suggests time may be running out to temper the rising risks of climate change. "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided," warns we’re on track for a 4°C warmer world marked by extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise.

Moreover, adverse effects of a warming climate are “tilted against many of the world's poorest regions” and likely to undermine development efforts and global development goals, says the study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, on behalf of the World Bank. The report, urges "further mitigation action as the best insurance against an uncertain future."

"A 4°C warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2°C," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. "Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest."

The report, reviewed by some of the world’s top scientists, is being released ahead of the next comprehensive studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013/14, and follows the Bank’s own Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change in 2008 and the World Development Report on climate change in 2010. "Turn Down the Heat" combines a synthesis of recent scientific literature with new analysis of likely impacts and risks, focusing on developing countries. It chronicles already observed climate change and impacts, such as heat waves and other extreme events, and offers projections for the 21st century for droughts, heat waves, sea level rise, food, water, ecosystems and human health....