Too big to flood? Megacities face a future of major storm risks

Bruce Stutz in the Guardian Environment Network (via Yale Environment 360): By the middle of the century, the scores of billions it cost to compensate the greater New York City area for being unprepared for superstorm Sandy may seem like a bargain. Without major adaptation measures to increase the level of storm protection beyond a 1-in-100-year event, the value of the city's buildings, transportation, and utilities utility infrastructures currently at risk from storm surges and flooding — an estimated $320 billion — will be worth $2 trillion by 2070, according to continuing studies by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

...Some of those cities with the most at-risk assets now — Tokyo, New Orleans, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Nagoya — will, over the next 50 years, be surpassed by Calcutta, Shanghai, Mumbai, Tianjin, Bangkok, Ningbo, and Ho Chi Minh City, booming Asian coastal metropolitan areas where trillions of dollars in economic assets will be vulnerable. So will many millions of these cities' residents, most of them poor and living in low-lying areas.

Just as banks grew "too big to fail," over the next half-century these coastal megacities may grow "too big to flood." But flood they will unless they dramatically revise their growth strategies and undertake major infrastructure projects designed to protect them from the dual threat of rising sea levels and intensifying storms, experts say.

Based on the conservative assumption that sea levels will rise by only 18 inches by 2070, the OECD finds that total assets vulnerable to flooding and storm surges of just 10 of these cities could account for some 9 percent of the world's GDP. But many climate scientists and coastal experts note that sea level rise forecasts by groups such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not factor in the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. When they are taken into account, these experts say that global sea levels could well rise 3 to 6 feet this century, leaving scores of cities and massive amounts of economic infrastructure dangerously exposed....

Employees from MTA New York City Transit worked to restore the South Ferry subway station after it was flooded by seawater during Hurricane Sandy. Photo: Metropolitan Transportation Authority / Patrick Cashin. Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Lidar confirms Sandy’s dramatic coastal change impacts and future coastal vulnerability

US Geological Survey: The extent of Hurricane Sandy's wrath -- and the future coastal vulnerability of the region -- is clear in a new U.S. Geological Survey analysis of recently collected lidar coastal data. The research documented particularly dramatic impacts within the Fire Island National Seashore on Long Island, NY.

Lidar, or light detection and ranging, uses lasers to measure elevations in a specific distance/area. Researchers used the lidar data, collected during an airborne survey, to construct a high-resolution three-dimensional map of before- and after-storm conditions.  This information can help scientists and decision-makers identify the areas along the shore that have been made more vulnerable to future coastal hazards in the storm’s wake.

"Coastal dunes are our last line of natural defense from the onslaught of storms and rising seas," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "They are dynamic features that retreat from the battering of major storms like Sandy and rebuild in the aftermath; their natural cycle is inconsistent with immobile development."

USGS research oceanographer Hilary Stockdon said that the lidar data show that at Ocean Beach, for example, storm surge and waves associated with Sandy demolished protective dunes – and the structures built on top of them. "In the pre-storm elevation image of Ocean Beach, you can see houses that are sitting right on the sand dune," Stockdon said. "But in the post-storm elevation image, the high dune elevation is gone. The dune and the houses on it were completely washed away."

The pre- and post-storm ground conditions at Fire Island were similarly dramatic, USGS coastal geologist Cheryl Hapke said, noting that the USGS worked closely with the National Park Service to gather field data on the island....

The beach at Saltaire on Fire Island, pre-Sandy, shot by Mrshllmx, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Climate change hits Africa

Sarah Bomkapre Kamara in Deutsche Welle: Africa is reeling from climate change. Floods, drought, famine, food shortages are buffeting the vulnerable continent, which lacks the resources to protect itself. A UN climate conference has just opened in Qatar.

Climate change is already hitting the continent hard. Floods in Nigeria, famine and drought in the Sahel, the shrinking of Lake Turkana are all just a preamble of what is to come if the continent does not act fast. As the two week UN climate conference gets underway in Doha, Qatar, the African UN regional group at these talks is hoping for a "second commitment" and funds that will help their countries adapt to climate change and its effects.

"African countries are looking forward to a commitment period that doesn't carry over excessive emission rise or hot air," Ruth Mhlanga, youth and solutions coordinator, Greenpeace Africa told DW's Africalink show.

This commitment is an extention of the Kyoto protocol of 1997 which binds developed nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by an average 5.2 percent below 1990 levels between the years 2008 and 2012. The African UN regional group at the conference says failure to extend Kyoto would leave only national actions, with no legally binding U.N. framework.

A UN survey warns the world is on target for a rise in temperatures that will cause more floods, drought, heat waves and rising sea levels. Africa should prepare for the worst. "The average increase in temperature in Africa is likely to be higher than the average increase globally," Micheal Kliene, deputy executive director of IUFRO - The World's Network of Forest Science told DW....

On the road to Timbuktu in Mali, shot by Annabel Symington, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Climate change evident across Europe, confirming urgent need for adaptation

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research: Climate change is affecting all regions in Europe, causing a wide range of impacts on society and the environment. Further impacts are expected in the future, potentially causing high damage costs, according to the latest assessment published by the European Environment Agency today.

The report, ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012’ finds that higher average temperatures have been observed across Europe as well as decreasing precipitation in southern regions and increasing precipitation in northern Europe.

The report, ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012’ finds that higher average temperatures have been observed across Europe as well as decreasing precipitation in southern regions and increasing precipitation in northern Europe. The Greenland ice sheet, Arctic sea ice and many glaciers across Europe are melting, snow cover has decreased and most permafrost soils have warmed.

Extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods and droughts have caused rising damage costs across Europe in recent years. While more evidence is needed to discern the part played by climate change in this trend, growing human activity in hazard-prone areas has been a key factor. Future climate change is expected to add to this vulnerability, as extreme weather events are expected to become more intense and frequent. If European societies do not adapt, damage costs are expected to continue to rise, according to the report.

Some regions will be less able to adapt to climate change than others, in part due to economic disparities across Europe, the report says. The effects of climate change could deepen these inequalities. Jacqueline McGlade, EEA Executive Director said: “Climate change is a reality around the world, and the extent and speed of change is becoming ever more evident. This means that every part of the economy, including households, needs to adapt as well as reduce emissions.”...

Cities of Dhaka, Manila, Bangkok, Yangon and Jakarta face highest climate change risks – Maplecroft Risk Atlas

Maplecroft News: Multinational companies operating in the Asian growth economies will be exposed to spiralling environmental risks over the coming decades, according to Maplecroft’s 5th annual Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas , which identifies Dhaka, Manila, Bangkok, Yangon, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City and Kolkata as the cities facing the most risk from the onset of climate change.

Maplecroft’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), which forms a central pillar of the Atlas, classifies seven cities as ‘extreme risk,’ out of a list of 50 that were chosen for their current and future importance to global business. Dhaka, Bangladesh, (ranked 1st), Manila, the Philippines (2), Bangkok, Thailand (3), Yangon, Myanmar (4), Jakarta, Indonesia (5), Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam (6) and Kolkata, India (7) emerged as the most at risk from the changing temperatures and weather systems that are forecast to take hold in the coming years.

The CCVI has been developed by Maplecroft to identify risks to populations, company operations, supply chains and investments in 197countries down to a level of 25km2. It evaluates exposure to climate related natural hazards; the sensitivity of populations; development; natural resources; agricultural dependency; research and development; government effectiveness and education levels.

With strong economic growth of above 5% forecast for countries such as the Philippines, Viet Nam, Indonesia and India in the next few years, the relevance of climate change to populations and business in the major commercial centres should not be underplayed, states Maplecroft in its analysis.
“As global corporations expand into the emerging growth markets, their operations and supply chains will become exposed to a complex set of climate risks that have the potential to disrupt business continuity,” states Maplecroft’s Head of Maps and Indices, Helen Hodge. “It is essential for companies to identify where suppliers, assets and personnel are most at risk and plan for the long term.”...

Manila Bay at night, shot by Waiting for serendipity, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license

Climate change poses grave threat to Indian cities

Chinmayi Shalya in the Times of India: Climate change and reckless development are leaving Mumbai increasingly vulnerable to the elements. A news report on an ongoing climate study places India's financial capital sixth in a list of 20 port cities worldwide at risk from severe storm-surge flooding, damage from high storm winds and rising seas. By 2070, according to the study, an estimated 11.4 million people and assets worth $1.3 trillion would be at peril in Mumbai due to climatic extremes.

The in-progress study, by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), reveals that many of the susceptible port cities are in Asia. In the news report's list-ranked by assets at risk-eight among the top 10 fall in the world's most populous continent.

Kolkata comes in the fourth spot while Guangzhou takes in second. In the City of Joy, 14 million citizens and assets worth $2 trillion will be at peril by 2070, the study predicts.

Experts studying climate change assert that rampant concretization in global cities is not only leading to fluctuations in temperatures worldwide but also causing shifts in microclimates. These changes together, they say, are likely to build up into disastrous scenarios by 2070, effecting excessive rainfall. In cities like Mumbai, where poor urban planning has left little space for water to get absorbed into the ground, the impact may be severe.

"A big portion of Mumbai is concretized and this is increasing. Solar radiation is absorbed by concrete, triggering urban heat island effect, where temperature within the city rises. The circulation of the warm air from the city with cooler air currents from less urbanized areas can cause extreme weather conditions," says Subimal Ghosh, an associate professor in the civil engineering department of IIT-Bombay....

Imperial Towers in Mumbai, shot by Satish Krishnamurthy, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

US energy infrastructure is vulnerable

Andrew Holland in the Christian Science Monitor: When people think about climate change and energy, they naturally are drawn to thinking about clean technology, carbon capture, or emissions. We're thinking about mitigation, in other words. However, as Sandy showed, our energy infrastructure is at high risk to the effects of climate change as well. There is a need to adapt to the effects of a changed climate.

A Climate Central report from earlier this year highlighted the amount of energy infrastructure around the country that is close to sea level. Louisiana, of course, comes across as the clearest example of energy infrastructure at risk to rising seas, with 163 major energy facilities at five feet above sea level or less. Surprisingly, New Jersey and New York are ranked 5th and 6th in the country, respectively, for the amount of infrastructure that is within 5 feet of sea level. This proved to be a severe vulnerability when Sandy's storm surge - at 13 feet in New York Harbor - pushed in. The results were predictable, and disastrous.

In Manhattan, a ConEd substation exploded, leaving lower Manhattan without power. About 70% of the region's refineries are shuttered. About 20 nuclear reactors were in the path of Sandy. Two shut down because of high water. Importantly, however - America's nuclear power plants are designed to withstand hurricanes and they performed as expected, with no danger. Other energy assets, like power plants (coal, natural gas, hydro) as well as transmission lines - were at risk as well.

Here in the DC area, Sandy's effects on our energy infrastructure (measured mostly in power outages) are far more muted than in the New York and New Jersey area. Undoubtedly, that is because the storm's effects were far worse up there than here. Another factor, however, was the derecho storm of July 1 of this year. That storm acted as a wakeup call to local utilities to trim trees and make their systems more resilient. It also had the ironic effect of culling the most at-risk trees. Those that survived that storm were likely strong enough to withstand Sandy's 80 mile per hour winds....

Damage from Hurricane Sandy in Summit, New Jersey, shot by Tomwsulcer, Wikimedia Commons, nder the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.