US military ponders Arctic changes

David Smalley at the US Office of Naval Research: The Navy’s chief of naval research, Rear Adm. Matthew Klunder, met this week with leaders from U.S. and Canadian government agencies to address research efforts in the Arctic, in response to dramatic and accelerating changes in summer sea ice coverage.

“Our Sailors and Marines need to have a full understanding of the dynamic Arctic environment, which will be critical to protecting and maintaining our national, economic and security interests,” said Klunder. “Our research will allow us to know what’s happening, to predict what is likely to come for the region, and give leadership the information it needs to formulate the best policies and plans for future Arctic operations.”

The Arctic Summit, held Dec. 11 at the Office of Naval Research (ONR) headquarters in Arlington, enabled senior leaders from ONR, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Defense Research and Development Canada, the Departments of Energy and Interior, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation, the Navy Task Force Climate Change and more to share important scientific ideas on the region. One of the goals of the summit was to assess the different Arctic research efforts—and potentially form new research partnerships.

“Vital and varied Arctic research is taking place across a number of agencies,” Klunder said. “We are identifying areas of common scientific interest—and ideally come up with a comprehensive mutual understanding of everyone’s current and planned efforts.”

In the wake of last week’s widely reported release of NOAA’s Arctic Report Card—co-edited by ONR program officer and Arctic science expert Dr. Martin Jeffries—new concerns have arisen over record-low levels of sea ice and snow in the Arctic.

“We are surely on the verge of seeing a new Arctic,” said Jeffries. “And, since the Arctic is not isolated from the global environmental system—indeed it is an integral and vital part of that system—we can expect to see Arctic change have global environmental and socio-economic consequences.”....

NOAA took this photo of late summer ice in the Arctic Ocean

Will climate change cause water conflict?

AlphaGalileo via the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: International researchers from 14 institutions met in Nicosia (Cyprus) on the 10th and 11th of December to present and debate the results of studies on water, conflict and security conducted in the past three years in a variety of locations in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel under the CLICO research project (www.clico.org). The CLICO project explored the social dimensions of climate change and in particular, conflicts related to water, and the threats this may pose for national and human security. The project was led by the Institute for Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA) of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) and financed by the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities (SSH) Theme of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme.

The effects of climate change on water are expected to intensify in the Mediterranean and surrounding regions in the coming years. This raises potential threats to the security of populations, particularly those most vulnerable to droughts or floods. Prominent people have talked about the danger of “water wars” and about climate change as a threat to national security. The results of the CLICO project, however, found that such discourses oversimplify a complex reality. Climate and water resource changes are important, but play only a secondary role – at least for the time being – in the causation of conflict and insecurity compared to political, economic and social factors. According to the research, countries with good institutions are unlikely to experience violence because of water, and populations in countries with strong welfare and civil security systems will suffer much less from climate disasters, compared to those in countries without.

CLICO’s final conference in Cyprus, which was held at the same time as the high-profile EWACC 2012 (Energy, Water and Climate Change) conference, presented the project’s results, established policy recommendations to raise the security of populations and proposed new ideas on public policies and institutional arrangements needed to promote peace and security under changing climate and water conditions. Among other aspects, the meeting served to debate the relation between droughts, floods and sea level rise and social conflict, the role of institutions and international agreements and adaptation policies for human security.

The CLICO studies found that political stability and the welfare state reduce the likelihood of social conflict. The vulnerability of populations stems from deeper causes which precede disaster events, such as poverty, lack of access to education, and corruption in political and administrative institutions. CLICO researchers found that development reduces violent domestic conflicts over water, though in some cases, such as with the expansion of large-scale agriculture, it might also be a source of social tensions and conflicts.

A key conclusion is that political discourses must not reiterate simplistic models which link climate change directly to social conflict and insecurity: a better distribution of wealth, greater social protection, universal access to justice and higher levels of democracy can largely help to improve human security and reduce outbreaks of social conflict....

The roads along the old moat of Chiang Mai are full of vehicles during the Songkran water splashing festival, shot by Takeaway, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license