NASA's Operation IceBridge data brings new twist to sea ice forecasting

NASA: Shrinking Arctic sea ice grabbed the world's attention again earlier this year with a new record low minimum. Growing economic activity in the Arctic, such as fishing, mineral exploration and shipping, is emphasizing the need for accurate predictions of how much of the Arctic will be covered by sea ice. Every June, an international research group known as the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) publishes a summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum known as the Sea Ice Outlook. The initial reports and monthly updates aim to give the scientific community and public the best available information on sea ice.

Researchers rely on models that use estimated ice thickness data and simulated atmospheric conditions to forecast how sea ice will change during the summer. For the first time, near real-time ice thickness data obtained by NASA's Operation IceBridge has been used to correct a forecast model's initial measurements, which could lead to improved seasonal predictions.

In a paper published last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, Ron Lindsay, IceBridge science team member and Arctic climatologist with the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington in Seattle, outlined efforts to use IceBridge data to improve the accuracy of seasonal sea ice forecasts. Lindsay and colleagues used a new quick look sea ice data product that IceBridge scientists released before the end of the Arctic campaign earlier this year. The quick look data, intended for use in time-sensitive applications like seasonal forecasts, supplements the final sea ice data product typically released roughly six months after the campaign. By using new data processing techniques, IceBridge scientists were able to publish the quick look measurements in a matter of weeks. "The idea was to make the data available for anyone to use for the Sea Ice Outlook," said sea ice scientist Nathan Kurtz of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

The work outlined in Lindsay's paper marks the first use of IceBridge quick look data in an ensemble sea ice forecast (computer) model. "An ensemble forecast is where you run a single forecast model many different times," said Lindsay. In this case, they ran the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) model seven times using conditions from previous summers. PIOMAS uses sea ice extent, the area of sea containing sea ice, and atmospheric data to simulate ice and ocean conditions....

A Digital Mapping System (DMS) mosaic of Arctic sea ice. The dark areas are leads, or open areas of water. Identifying leads is one of the necessary steps in preparing IceBridge’s quick look sea ice thickness data product. Credit: NASA / DMS team

Environmental threat map highlights Great Lakes restoration challenges

Space Daily via SPX: A comprehensive map three years in the making is telling the story of humans' impact on the Great Lakes, identifying how "environmental stressors" stretching from Minnesota to Ontario are shaping the future of an ecosystem that contains 20 percent of the world's fresh water.

In an article to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a group led by researchers at the University of Michigan reports on an expansive and detailed effort to map and cross-compare environmental stresses and the ecological services provided by the five lakes.

Their efforts have produced the most comprehensive map to date of Great Lakes' stressors, and also the first map to explicitly account for all major types of stressors on the lakes in a quantitative way.

"Despite clear societal dependence on the Great Lakes, their condition continues to be degraded by numerous environmental stressors," said David Allan, the project's lead researcher and a professor of aquatic sciences at the University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment.

The map gives federal and regional officials an unprecedented scientific foundation upon which to sustainably manage the Great Lakes, the researchers conclude.

The environmental stress map was developed by a bi-national team of researchers from academia and environmental organizations known as the Great Lakes Environmental Assessment and Mapping (GLEAM) project. The team drew upon the latest and best data from federal and state agencies as well as non-governmental organizations and individual researchers....

The Bayfield River entering Lake Huron, shot by Doc Searls, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license